The big difference tonight is that Wainwright is at home, where his regular-season ERA of 2.53 and opponents’ batting average of .217 were much better than what he showed on the road (3.36, .276). In eight postseason starts at Busch Stadium, Wainwright has been even better, going 4-0 with a 1.07 ERA. In his last home start, he went the distance in a 6-1, NLDS-clinching victory in Game 5 over the Pirates.
In Game 1, Lester was the -120 favorite at Fenway. This time around, Wainwright is -123 at home. However, even with two of the next three possible games in Boston, the updated series odds at William Hill sports books has the Red Sox favored at only -120, with much of that price resting on the Cardinals’ Game 6 starter, Michael Wacha. Boston opened as a -140 favorite before Game 1.
The big question for Game 5 game is how Wainwright will respond. He’s lost his last two postseason games – both on the road – and allowed five runs (three earned) to the Red Sox in Game 1. Is home field a good enough reason to believe Wainwright will bounce back? Do his chances of performing well increase with Mike Napoli out of the lineup? It was Napoli who got the Game 1 party started with a bases-loaded clearing double in the first inning that St. Louis never recovered from.
To read the entire Game 5 preview, including our pick, visit The Linemakers on Sporting News.
